No one can accurately say the trend of an industry for the entire year, but we hope to understand the trend through a combination of the direction of innovation and last year’s situation as much as possible, so as to take an advantage. During the epidemic, people’s overall consumption desires tended to be conservative and restrain impulse. Many well-known leading companies fell in 2023, and the industry winter seems to have really arrived. But looking at the entire baking industry, more than 54,000 new related companies were added from January to September 2023. Experts predict that the total size of the baked food market will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2023. In 2024, dangers, competition and opportunities coexist.
Therefore, this article combines domestic and foreign market reports, interviews with many well-known pastry chefs and restaurant founders around the world, and our own observations of the industry to summarize, focusing on the baking product level to share trends.
No.1 Smaller and smaller decorated cakes:
People who like to visit stores, especially those who pay attention to big brand stores in Europe, America, and Japan, may have noticed: the cakes are getting smaller and smaller.
The small cake category is not new. Cupcakes, cake pops and mini waffles are everywhere. Many people think that small cakes are outdated. In fact, small cakes have begun to play a new role – becoming an important part of classic cakes, with more diverse flavors, more luxurious decorations, and more suitable for the aesthetics of today’s young people.
Many bakeries use these small cakes to decorate their counters, making the shop look more dreamy and exquisite.
Another advantage of small cakes is that they give bakers more opportunities to be creative and allow consumers to break away from the stereotype of small cakes. For consumers, bite-sized mini cakes help them control their portions, allow them to indulge appropriately, try more new flavors, satisfy their adventurous mentality, and experience the joy of multiple flavors blooming on their taste buds.
In the past two years, in the context of pursuing healthy food, bakery products have developed some new concepts. Vegan desserts, dairy-free and gluten-free desserts are all gaining traction. These can be used to modify petit fours and satisfy all requirements in one dessert.
No.2 evokes the taste in memory
When the food we taste inadvertently has the taste of grandma’s cooking, the joyful feeling will definitely make us remember it for a long time.
This is what the word “New stalgia” that appears frequently in industry reports wants to tell us. This can be understood as a new interpretation of the food in memory, evoking people’s nostalgia.
A U.S. industry survey of more than 20,000 consumers in 50 countries shows that 73% of diners want familiar elements to appear while trying new foods. This proportion has increased by more than 20 percentage points compared with the past.
The same applies to the baking industry, giving new styles to familiar foods. For European and American countries, the taste of childhood is chicken pie, butter pound cake, and gingerbread. In fact, pound cake has become the most popular recipe in Southern Living magazine.
We can also see clues from a series of retro activities launched by companies such as Holiland and Oreo.
Although the general environment has made young people’s consumption more objective and rational, when the taste in their memories hits, it is difficult for someone not to stop and pause for a moment. Compared with exploring new products, consumers may be more willing to pay for their childhood. Memory pays.
For domestic consumer groups, there are many kinds of bread from childhood. In addition to digging out the “childhood taste” buried in memories, what is also a test for bakers is how to innovate by perfectly integrating regional characteristics with these classic products to create their own moat.
FAQ
Why are smaller-sized cakes and baked goods becoming a major trend in the baking industry?
The shift toward smaller portions is driven by changing consumer lifestyles and a growing focus on health and sustainability. Today’s consumers are increasingly looking for ways to reduce food waste, control portion sizes, and cut back on sugar intake without completely giving up sweets. Smaller cakes allow people to enjoy premium, high-quality treats guilty-free, making them perfect for solo indulgence, couples, or small, intimate gatherings rather than just massive celebrations.
How are modern bakers successfully tapping into the consumer demand for “nostalgic flavors”?
Bakers are connecting with consumers by using classic flavors that evoke fond childhood memories—such as traditional vanilla, rich cocoa, retro fruits, or regional comfort treats—and reimagining them with a modern twist. By combining these familiar, comforting tastes with contemporary textures, elegant decoration techniques, or healthier ingredient alternatives, bakers create a powerful emotional connection. This balance gives consumers a sense of warmth and security while still offering an exciting, high-quality pastry experience.
